CICC: U.S. inflation center is expected to continue to rise

According to Jinshi data, CICC research report pointed out that if interest rates are cut when the inflation pressure in the United States rises, it may accelerate economic recovery and inflation upward, and US bonds will be steep in the short term and bear in the long term. The 10-year interest rate is expected to rise to 4.8% this year. In the next one or two months, bond issuance wave and liquidity tightening may accelerate interest rates. In the long run, fiscal dominance may lower the center of the U.S. Treasury interest rate curve, short-term interest rates will fall with interest rate cuts, and monetary policy may stimulate demand for long-term bonds through QE or relaxation of financial regulation. With the economic recovery lowering interest rates, the inflation center is expected to continue to rise.