Bitcoin market is about to usher in a key turning point: In-depth discussion of STH-RP and on-chain signals

Bitcoin is at a critical turning point, and the short-term holder actual price (STH-RP) is the key psychological and technical support level. Currently, Bitcoin price is close to the breakeven point for short-term investors. If it can break through STH-RP, it is expected to stop panic selling and support the rebound. The on-chain indicators show that the bull market is healthy: the NVT ratio is 1.51, indicating a balanced valuation; the MVRV Z value is 0.72, indicating that it is in the mid-cycle consolidation stage. Institutional fund flows show that in September 2025, Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of US$444.3 million, while Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of US$908.4 million. As ETFs hold 7% of Bitcoin supply and intensify macro uncertainty, the market is waiting for Fed policy clues to determine the next directional move.