Macro Forecast: US PPI and CPI data are coming in August | Binance Morning Post (September 7)

● Macro forward: US PPI and CPI data hit in August According to BlockBeats, due to the upset U.S. non-farm employment data, expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have heated up. Despite expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further, the dollar has remained unexpectedly strong, and has not fallen sharply even after the disappointing non-farm employment data. Several Fed observers said these U.S. non-farm employment data have locked in a rate cut this month. Investors also held the same view, pushing the probability of a rate cut this month's meeting to 99%. Events worth noting in the coming week include: Monday, the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in August. On Tuesday, the initial value of the U.S. non-farm employment benchmark changes in 2025. Wednesday, U.S. PPI data for August; U.S. July wholesale sales monthly rate. On Thursday, the U.S. CPI data for August, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. week to September 6. On Friday, the initial value of the U.S. September one-year inflation rate forecast and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. If PPI again showed an unexpected increase in August, investors could shrink some of their more dovish expectations of the Fed's rate cut. For now, though, the impact of tariffs on commodity prices seems to be moderate, and a potentially bigger headache for the Fed is the recent rebound in service sector inflation. According to the Cleveland Fed’s instant forecast model, the overall CPI annual rate is expected to rise slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% in August, while the core CPI annual rate may remain unchanged at 3.1%. ● Trump exempts global tariffs on metals such as gold, tungsten and uranium. According to BlockBeats, U.S. President Trump took action on Friday to exempt graphite, tungsten, uranium, gold bars and other metals from his national tariffs, while levying taxes on silicone products. The changes will take effect on Monday, under an executive order issued on Friday. Trump's directives may also accelerate the implementation of customized trade agreements between the United States and other countries, making it easier for Washington to remove tariffs on aircraft parts, generic drugs, and certain products that cannot be grown, mined or produced naturally in China (such as special spices, coffee and some rare metals). The president's order said the changes were made on the advice of U.S. officials. According to the measure, "these modifications are necessary and appropriate to respond to the national emergency declared by Trump when he first implemented national-level tariffs in April." ● The US SEC sets up a cross-border working group to investigate foreign fraud plans According to ChainCatcher, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the establishment of a cross-border working group aimed at investigating foreign fraud plans, including market manipulation. The Working Group will strengthen enforcement of "gatekeepers" who assist these organizations in entering the U.S. capital markets. In addition, the Working Group will examine the role of foreign government controls and other factors in securities law violations. SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins said global companies are welcome to enter the U.S. capital markets, but will not tolerate using international borders to circumvent U.S. investor protection. ● Messari: The total amount of cryptocurrency mergers and acquisitions transactions this year has reached US$11.98 billion. According to Wu Said, Messari data shows that the scale of crypto industry mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2025 is expected to be the same as the total in the past five years. So far, the disclosed transaction volume has reached US$11.98 billion, more than three times the amount of any single year from 2020 to 2023. ● Data: BTC held by companies doubled in the past nine months According to Shenzhen Tide TechFlow, on September 6, Cointelegraph quoted River data as saying that BTC held by companies doubled in the past nine months. ● The US SEC extends the review period for the listing application of Grayscale Polkadot Trust. According to Wu Said, the US SEC announced on September 5 that it will extend the review period for the listing application of Grayscale Polkadot Trust (DOT) submitted by Nasdaq. The application was originally submitted on February 24 and intends to be listed and traded for DOT shares under Nasdaq Rule 5711(d). The SEC said it will use longer to decide whether to approve, reject, or initiate a process to further review the proposal ● Semler Scientific Strategy Director: BTC is now the "hardest currency" and may completely destroy all asset classes According to ChainCatcher, Joe Burnett, strategy director of Semler Scientific, Bitcoin treasury company, said the market is at the end of what Ray Dalio calls a long-term debt cycle. Stocks, real estate and fixed income products are valuating extremes. The end result of the long-term debt cycle is fiat currency depreciation, and the only export is hard currency. Gold was once the hardest currency, and Bitcoin was now the hardest currency that could completely destroy all asset classes.