Tonight's weak non-farm report may lock in interest rate cuts, labor market freezing puts pressure on the Federal Reserve | Binance Morning Post (September 5)

● Tonight's weak non-farm report may lock in interest rate cuts, and labor market freezes put pressure on the Federal Reserve. According to BlockBeats, economists expect the employment report to be released on Friday night to continue the weakest job growth trend in the United States since the pandemic, which is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to decide to cut interest rates. According to median survey forecasts of economists, non-farm employment could rise by 75,000 in August, which would be the fourth straight month of job growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. U.S. job growth has slowed significantly in recent months, and recruitment activities have cooled significantly as companies cope with demand concerns, rising costs and ongoing economic uncertainty brought about by President Trump’s capricious trade policies. This puts more pressure on Fed officials to step in and support the slowing labor market. "The labor market is basically frozen, and companies are suspending their wait-and-sees, and we have to wait and see before making a decision after the situation is clear." The July employment report released on August 1 showed that job growth in recent months was much lower than previous reports, changing the perception of the labor market by many economists and policy makers. The sharp downward correction also prompted Trump to suddenly fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, a move that has raised concerns about the future integrity of U.S. data. As labor market conditions become increasingly fragile, Fed Chairman Powell said he was open to rate cuts, and the weak August jobs report would further strengthen the reasons for the rate cut. According to futures contract pricing, the market generally expects Fed officials to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at their Sept. 16-17 meeting. But it is not clear what action the Fed will take in its next meeting. ● The US SEC announces the agenda for amending cryptocurrency rules and simplifying Wall Street information disclosure requirements According to Wu Said, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has released a new regulatory agenda and plans to propose new regulations on issuing and trading cryptocurrency, including exemptions and safe harbor clauses. The SEC considers allowing crypto assets to be listed on national stock exchanges and alternative trading systems. Meanwhile, the SEC plans to simplify information disclosure requirements to reduce the compliance burden on Wall Street. ● Trump signed an executive order to formally implement the US-Japan trade agreement According to BlockBeats, on September 5, US President Trump signed an executive order to formally implement the US-Japan trade agreement. Under the agreement, the United States imposes a benchmark tariff of 15% on almost all Japanese imported products and imposes separate treatment on products in specific industries. The Japanese government will accelerate the implementation of the "minimum access" plan for rice, increasing the purchase of US rice by 75%, and purchasing a total of US agricultural products of US$8 billion per year, including corn, soybeans, etc. In addition, Japan will allow the sale of US-made passenger cars without additional testing and purchase of US commercial aircraft and defense equipment. ● Japanese financial regulators propose to include cryptocurrencies in securities law regulation According to Shenchao TechFlow, the Japan Financial Services Bureau recommends transferring cryptocurrency regulation from the Payment Services Act to the framework of the Financial Commodity Exchange Act to strengthen investor protection. The report pointed out that Japan already has more than 12 million cryptocurrency accounts, and the total user deposits reach 5 trillion yen. If the new regulations are implemented, cryptocurrency issuing parties will face stricter information disclosure requirements and intermediary services will also be subject to stricter supervision. The proposal is currently an internal briefing document and is yet to be finalized by the Financial Systems Commission and the Government. ● The number of people who requested unemployment benefits in the United States in the week from August 30 was 237,000, and the expected number of people 230,000 was reported in the week from August 30, which exceeded the expected number of people who requested unemployment benefits in the United States in the week from August 30, and the previous value was 229,000. ● Analyst: REX-Osprey may launch its first Dogecoin ETF as early as next week. According to Shenchao TechFlow, on September 5, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said that REX Shares and Osprey Funds may launch the first ETF that provides Dogecoin direct investment opportunities as early as next week, with the code DOJE. The fund operates by establishing subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands to circumvent the restrictions of the Investment Companies Act 1940. The prospectus also mentions ETF products related to XRP, BONK, TRUMP and Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. Currently, institutions including Grayscale and Bitwise are also seeking to launch Dogecoin ETFs. ● Bloomberg analyst: Altcoin ETF approval is difficult to trigger altcoin market in the traditional sense. According to Shenchao TechFlow, on September 5, Cryptoslate, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said that the current market has formed an altcoin market through the rise in the price of digital asset financial companies rather than traditional tokens. Seyffart pointed out that institutional investors prefer multi-cryptocurrency portfolio products rather than single alternative token ETFs. Currently, Grayscale and Bitwise’s cryptocurrency basket products are awaiting SEC approval. Among them, Bitwise's products contain 10 crypto assets, while Grayscale's products contain 5 cryptocurrencies weighted by market value. He stressed that institutional funds prefer to gain cryptocurrency exposure through regulated products rather than holding tokens directly, and this structural shift could permanently change the upward pattern of altcoins.