Tonight's weak non-farm report may lock in rate cuts, labor market "freeze" puts pressure on the Federal Reserve

According to BlockBeats, on September 5, economists expect the employment report to be released on Friday night to continue the weakest job growth trend in the United States since the pandemic, which is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to decide to cut interest rates. According to median survey forecasts of economists, non-farm employment could rise by 75,000 in August, which would be the fourth straight month of job growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. U.S. job growth has slowed significantly in recent months, and recruitment activities have cooled significantly as companies cope with demand concerns, rising costs and ongoing economic uncertainty brought about by President Trump’s capricious trade policies. This puts more pressure on Fed officials to step in and support the slowing labor market. "The labor market is basically frozen, and companies are suspending their wait-and-sees, and we have to wait and see before making a decision after the situation is clear." The July employment report released on August 1 showed that job growth in recent months was much lower than previous reports, changing the perception of the labor market by many economists and policy makers. The sharp downward correction also prompted Trump to suddenly fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, a move that has raised concerns about the future integrity of U.S. data. As labor market conditions become increasingly fragile, Fed Chairman Powell said he was open to rate cuts, and the weak August jobs report would further strengthen the reasons for the rate cut. According to futures contract pricing, the market generally expects Fed officials to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at their Sept. 16-17 meeting. But it is not clear what action the Fed will take in its next meeting.