QCP Brief: Markets focus on Fed independence and the possibility of interest rate cuts

According to Shenzhen Chao TechFlow, QCP released a briefing on September 3, pointing out that the market focus has shifted from interest rate cuts to the issue of Fed independence. Analysis shows that the market priced at a higher term premium on the long-term side, lowering the threshold for the downward cycle of the US dollar. Against this background, even if the easing policy is implemented, the yield curve tends to steep and the US dollar weakens. Gold and Bitcoin are supported as investors seek to hedge inflation and manage risks. The September rate cut is still seen as possible after Jackson Hall meeting. Although inflation is difficult to quickly fall back to the 2% target, and the market expects two interest rate cuts this year, new tariffs may push up inflation expectations, which is worth paying attention.