Key transaction data: The Fed is losing control of interest rates, 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 5%

According to BlockBeats, on September 2, The Kobeissi Letter released the latest market analysis saying that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 after 15 days, but the 30-year Treasury yield is currently close to 5.00%. As the market absorbs the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, interest rates are rising. Currently, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17 is 90%, and the market expects interest rates to be cut by 50 basis points in 2025, with the possibility of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points this year even as high as 34%. However, today the U.S. Treasury yield surged, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rebounding to 5%, the same level as the level in 2008 when it was the biggest financial crisis in U.S. history. As the market prepares to start cutting interest rates, interest rates are actually rising. The U.S. deficit spending has been severely out of control, and the Federal Reserve is losing control of interest rates, issuing more than $200 billion in bonds in just five weeks. We are at a stage where investors are simply unwilling to buy U.S. government bonds at current yields. The “maturity premium” of U.S. 10-year government bonds is the additional benefit required by investors to hold long-term bonds, usually due to the “perceived risk” of holding these bonds, which is close to the highest level since 2014. At the same time, with only two weeks left before interest rate cuts, U.S. core inflation has rebounded to more than 3% and is on an upward trend. With an annual inflation of 3%, the dollar will lose more than 25% of its purchasing power over the next 10 years. It has lost about 25% since 2020 and inflation is still rising. The Fed will cut interest rates in two weeks and "blam the weak labor market." The unemployment rate among young people aged 16 to 24 in the United States is as high as 10%. The labor market is weak, inflation is rising, and stagflation is coming.