Analysis: Bitcoin fell by about 6% in September, and ETF capital outflows or stock market sell-offs could cause BTC to around $100,000

According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin September has always been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin to perform. Market data over the past 12 years show that Bitcoin’s average decline in September was about 6%, and its median decline was about 5%. Additionally, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin premium is falling, reflecting market doubts about crypto-dominated corporate financial strategies. Nick Ruck of LVRG Research said the trend could exacerbate the seasonal weakness of Bitcoin in September, while also suggesting that the crypto market is maturing and investors are beginning to reevaluate long-term value drivers. While expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve are expected to ease seasonal pressures, ETF outflows or stock market sell-offs could further lower Bitcoin prices to near the $100,000 support level. Data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has closed down eight times in September, including a sharp decline of 13% in 2019 and a sharp decline in 2014, making it difficult to continue to rise even in a bull cycle. This seasonal model allows traders to view September as a fixed trading cycle.