XRP faces resistance in market volatility

XRP has struggled to maintain its upward momentum after it rose 18% in early September (the token price rose from $2.70 to $3.18). Despite this, XRP still struggled to break through the $3.20 mark, blocked at key resistance levels, and then fell back to test the $3 support. The Fed's recent rate cut has exacerbated XRP's pullback, failing to push it to break through $3.18, causing it to continue to weaken in the near term and again test the $3 support level. Additionally, XRP has difficulty maintaining above the 50-day simple moving average, which has exacerbated selling pressure. Futures trader DOM pointed out the importance of the $3.12 level, which was failed to hold onto earlier this week. This level is crucial for XRP to move towards $3.30, with direct resistance currently at $3.30. Any significant gains will require a recovery of the $3.18 level. Despite these challenges, broader market indicators indicate that the XRP outlook continues to be bullish. On-chain data shows that XRP shows a strong overselling trend between $2.70 and $3.00, indicating that investors are laying out potential gains rather than exiting the market. Changes in net positions since August 22 supported this upswing trend after profit-taking in July and early August. The achieved profit-loss ratio also highlights a transitional phase, with July experiencing the most significant profit-taking of this cycle, followed by a decline. However, the ratio has risen sharply recently, at its highest level since November 2024, indicating that much of the previous selling pressure has been absorbed. Coupled with the increase in net holdings, the long-term prospects of XRP are optimistic. In addition, XRP's market fractal pattern remains a bullish indicator. The current pattern is consistent with the structure of the first quarter. The $2.70 low coincides with the Fibonacci gold pocket line. The fractal suggests that XRP is following its expected cyclical pattern, possibly laying the foundation for a 60% to 85% rebound in the fourth quarter.