FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and internal discrepancy is intensifying

According to Jinshi data, FOMC expects that the meeting will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point cut is not ruled out. The September resolution may face "tripartite differences", with most officials supporting a 25 basis point rate cut, while a few supporting a 50 basis point rate cut may remain unchanged. The June dot map shows that interest rate cuts will be cut twice in 2025. It is expected that the number of officials supporting interest rate cuts will increase after the update, and the overall tendency is to be loose. The dot map may show that some officials believe that a cumulative interest rate cut should be cut by 100 basis points in 2025. The statement is expected to mention the deepening of signs of weakening of the job market, acknowledging the slowdown in economic momentum in the first half of the year. Powell's press conference will focus on future interest rate cuts, and weak labor market may become the key reason for interest rate cuts. Powell may face the issue of Trump's "confidant" Milan entering the Fed's board of directors. Trump will be interviewed at 3 a.m. and may continue to criticize the Fed's interest rate cut too late and urge to speed up the pace of easing.