Citi's historical model before and after the first interest rate cut in Citi's review cycle: US stocks and bonds rose, gold first strengthened and then tied

According to BlockBeats, on September 17, according to Citi Research, according to historical data, the median performance of US stocks and bonds before and after the first interest rate cut was positive. The stock's median gain of about 5% in 50 days after the rate cut, but there is a downside risk in a hard landing situation. Bonds also benefit from expectations and actual rate cuts, with yields usually reaching lows before and after the first rate cut. The performance of the US dollar index is characterized by "weak first and flat", which usually weakens before interest rate cuts, but enters a range of fluctuations after interest rate cuts. Precious metals such as gold also rose before the introduction of loose policies, but their performance became flat after the actual interest rate cut, and more of them showed a range trading pattern. Citi analysts say these historical patterns are basically verified in 2024, but bond prices peaked near the first rate cut. At that time, the market priced for interest rate cuts was relatively aggressive, while this round of cycle pricing was relatively moderate, so concerns about the bond prospects were alleviated. (Wall Street News)