Could Trump declare a housing emergency in 2025? Mortgage difficulties intensify, long market bettors give a 34% probability

Polymarket gamblers believe Trump's chances of declaring a housing emergency by the end of the year are 34%, odds have risen 3% in 24 hours, and betting amounts exceeding $4,000. The market will only determine "yes" if a state of emergency is officially declared under the National Emergency Law before December 31. Searches on Google for Mortgage Help have exceeded the 2008 crisis level, highlighting the pressure on housing affordability. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent pointed out that given high mortgage rates and tight supply, the government may declare a state of emergency this fall, with the current median new home price of $403,800, and only 28% of housing is affordable for middle-income households.