Bitcoin's September 2025 performance goes against historical trends

Bitcoin (BTC) performed well in September, setting its best performance since 2012. Historically, September has been challenging for Bitcoin, often referred to as “Rektember” as its average decline was about 8%. However, this year, Bitcoin broke the law of seasonal fluctuations, up 8%, setting the second best September performance in history. The only time Bitcoin performed better in September was in 2012, when it rose 19.8%. This year's performance is of great significance because it is a period of high seasonal volatility in Bitcoin prices. Historical laws show that the next bull market peak is approaching, and other risky assets such as gold and the S&P 500 will also hit record highs. Despite the drastic market volatility, Bitcoin still maintains its upward momentum, even though its price volatility has reached unprecedented levels. Data from CoinGlass and BiTBO confirmed that Bitcoin’s gains were the second highest in history in September 2025, highlighting this unusual bull cycle. In 2025, Bitcoin’s price volatility dropped significantly, contrary to expectations that many market participants expect increased volatility based on past performance. Volatility has dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade and has dropped significantly since April, according to CoinGlass. On-chain analysis company Glassnode also pointed out that the decline in Bitcoin prices from historical highs this year was small, with the maximum drop of only 30%, while the decline in previous cycles had reached 80%. Despite the decline in volatility, Bitcoin’s bull performance remains striking, although its intensity is hard to match the previous cycles. Cointelegraph reported in July that Bitcoin’s price could rise by 50% after the Bitcoin Implicit Volatility Index (IMV) indicator reads unusually low. This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading decision involves risks.