Fed's resolution prospect: If interest rate cuts by only 25 basis points, the US dollar may rebound

Odaily Planet Daily News According to foreign media analysis, the US dollar index is currently hovering around a 41-month low, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs, and U.S. Treasury yields are close to April lows, and market pricing fully reflects expectations of the Fed's 25 basis points rate cut. With dovish expectations and the dollar decline continuing, if the Fed only achieves the expected 25 basis points rate cut, there is a likely reaction to "buy expectations and sell facts", the dollar seems to be expected to rebound, and the U.S. stock market may face profit-taking. Maintaining the dollar's decline and U.S. assets' rise could require a 50 basis point rate cut, as well as Fed Chairman Powell's recognition of expectations of massive easing. While the market believes that the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 3%, this possibility cannot be ruled out: a record-breaking revision of U.S. employment data could force the Fed to take action. (Jin Shi)