Moody's: The probability of a recession in the United States reaches 48% in the next 12 months, and the economy stands at the critical point
Source: golden
Time: 2025-09-15 10:26:01
According to Finbold, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the agency’s latest leading machine learning indicators show that as of August, the probability of an economic recession in the next year is 48%. He said that although the reading is below the 50% threshold, according to historical experience, when the probability approaches/breaks through the 40% range, it is often synchronized with the recession or follows before and after. Zandi also mentioned that the slowdown in employment and continuous downward revisions put the economy at a critical point.