Morgan Stanley economists predict U.S. economic growth will slow

Morgan Stanley chief economist Seth Carpenter stressed that U.S. economic growth has slowed significantly and blamed it mainly on U.S. tariff policies. Carpenter expects the consequences of these policies to continue to emerge in the coming months. He predicts that the U.S. economy will experience weak growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. It is expected that by 2026, the US economic growth rate will be only about 1.25%, a sharp drop from 2.8% in 2024. Carpenter also noted that the U.S. labor market is weakening compared to a few months ago. The latest data shows that from March 2024 to March 2025, the new jobs were only half of the initial expectations. In addition, U.S. industrial production has also shown signs of weakness.