Geopolitical turmoil and cryptocurrency resilience: a strategic allocation framework for uncertain times

From 2020 to 2025, geopolitical tensions have reshaped the role of cryptocurrencies, turning them from speculative assets to crisis response tools. Bitcoin soared 20% during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but then fell 65% as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. By 2024, institutional investors adoption has reduced volatility, with Bitcoin volatility only ±3% amid Iran-Israel tensions. In 2025, during the Middle East conflict, the price of Bitcoin reached $112,000 driven by low interest rates and regulatory clarity. Research shows that green cryptocurrencies like Algorand and Cardano have diversification advantages, while Bitcoin, oil and renewable energy act as risk “recipients”. Today, the strategic portfolio combines cryptocurrencies with gold and gas to achieve optimized risk-adjusted returns.