Analysis: BTC trend will usher in a normalized short-term bull and bear market, and investors' trend confidence returns to positive today

According to BlockBeats, on September 12, on-chain data analyst Murphy posted a statement saying that according to the Glassnode Investor Trend Confidence Index, judging from past data, even if the investor confidence index returns from the hesitation zone to the positive zone today, it does not mean that BTC will definitely form a new upward trend, just like in July 23 and June 24, the rebound limit is around the previous high. The current market is very confusing. Although it was later proved that even if you buy at a high point, as long as you firmly hold, you can gain the subsequent increase, only many investors can firmly hold positions. Whenever the Glassnode investor trend confidence index changes from positive to hesitation, that is, reminding the market confidence to reverse, the trend may end soon. Whether BTC will still follow a four-year cycle in the future is unknown to all market participants, including institutions. Short-term bull and bear may be the normalized measure of future BTC trends. The method of describing the bull and bear cycle using a -70% decline or dozens of times increase will fail.