Bitcoin’s macroeconomic dance: inflation, risk appetite and digital hedging battle

In 2025, against the backdrop of global inflation trend differentiation, Bitcoin’s role as a macroeconomic hedging tool is still controversial. Despite the impact of tariffs, the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation remained at 3.6%, Bitcoin showed sensitivity to real-time data and rose when deflation signals such as PPI declines appeared in September. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.65, challenging its independent hedging capabilities, but it still attracts investors from hyperinflation economies. Institutional adoption, regulatory transparency and geopolitical risks will determine their future utility.