Market Analysis: Fed may be disappointed with 2026 rate cut expectations

Huobi HTX reported that the interest rate market is priced at a series of long-term rate cuts that the Federal Reserve has started this month, and by the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve's target interest rate range will drop below 3%. According to Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta, this expected path to sharp interest rate cuts is unlikely to be reflected in the Fed's September dot chart, which contrasts the Fed's trajectory with the market's expected trajectory. "The FOMC meeting is about to be held, and it's hard to see how the Fed will meet expectations," Duta wrote. To make the dot chart in September match the market forecast, eight Fed officials must lower their 2026 dot rate to 3% or less.