QCP Capital: The market is consolidating and waiting for the CPI data to be released on Thursday, and the possibility of the United States further escalating trade frictions is low

According to BlockBeats, on September 8, QCP Capital released its latest report saying that stock futures continued to rise after non-farm employment data unexpectedly fell short of expectations last Friday. The data confirms the weakening of the job market since June - the record for job growth for 53 consecutive months had been broken. As the market bets on a 72 basis points rate cut this year, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell to a new year low. However, the risk appetite brought about by the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has not spread to the crypto space. Despite the rebound in the stock market and gold hit new highs, cryptocurrencies have shown an independent market and have continued to consolidate sideways in the past week. The market may interpret this sideways as a bearish signal: the risk reversal indicator shows a surge in demand for put options, especially for contracts that expire in September. But some people believe that this actually demonstrates the resilience of crypto assets - even if Strategy is removed from the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin still sticks to the $110,000 mark; despite the five consecutive days of capital outflows from spot ETFs, Ethereum still sticks above $4,250. QCP Capital believes that this direction lacks more reflects the market's cautious attitude before the release of U.S. inflation data on Thursday. Short-term implied volatility continues to be high, which may continue until after the release of CPI data. If inflation data is higher than the expected value of 0.3%, it may complicate the Fed's path to cut interest rates. Although the probability is low, the market is not unprepared for this given the influence of tariff factors. Even though the tariff policy has caused the data to rise temporarily, judging by the current economic situation, the Trump administration is unlikely to further escalate trade frictions. Therefore, unless this week's data triggers an overreaction, the crypto market will still gain solid support in the absence of major catalysts.